Risk modelling and demand forecasting
Risk modelling can be applied at a number of levels from global (avian flu across a whole PCT) down to very specific (chronic heart disease in particular post codes or population sub-segments). Consequential demand forecasting necessarily has a limitation in its use. At a global level it can be used for strategic planning purposes but not week to week individual provider volume budgeting. At a specific level it can be used for operational volume planning, but not to predict overall PCT budget achievement. A mix is required to meet all requirements.
Bupa Health Dialog is experienced in blending these types of analysis, and knowing which types of analysis are useful in what situations. We already run numerous risk modelling and forecasting routines in parallel in our business to ensure that we meet our short and long term objectives. We are used to working with OPCS and HRG data based on UK data standards and our risk tools were all developed in the UK, for the UK.
What we can do for you
- Data warehousing and maintenance: we take data from your disparate systems and create an integrated and flexible database.
- Analysis: we can deploy from our range of tools and techniques according to the specific objectives of each engagement to provide high quality analysis. We can also recommend specific types of analysis based on patterns in your data and our experience of health care purchasing in the UK and overseas.
- Presentation: we use visualisation techniques so that complex data can be assimilated effectively by users.
- Segmentation: we can create population or patient segments for various purposes - disease management, shaping supply or patient engagement.
- Integration - integrate modelling data with day to day patient activity to create patient management programmes based on your own specific needs and demographics.
The benefits are:
- provide new insights by combining your various data sets
- create quantitative frameworks to assist with strategic prioritisation
- highlight specific key risks to overall performance achievement so that mitigating action can be planned
Next steps...
- Find out about other services available to you
- Send an email enquiry
- Contact us on 0845 600 3036